Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin: implications of the 2007 IPCC scenarios   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Tazebe Beyene  Dennis P. Lettenmaier  Pavel Kabat 《Climatic change》2010,100(3-4):433-461

We assess the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Nile River basin using a macroscale hydrology model. Model inputs are bias corrected and spatially downscaled 21st Century simulations from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two global emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) archived from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). While all GCMs agree with respect to the direction of 21st Century temperature changes, there is considerable variability in the magnitude, direction, and seasonality of projected precipitation changes. Our simulations show that, averaged over all 11 GCMs, the Nile River is expected to experience increase in streamflow early in the study period (2010–2039), due to generally increased precipitation. Streamflow is expected to decline during mid- (2040–2069) and late (2070–2099) century as a result of both precipitation declines and increased evaporative demand. The predicted multimodel average streamflow at High Aswan Dam (HAD) as a percentage of historical (1950–1999) annual average are 111 (114), 92 (93) and 84 (87) for A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Implications of these streamflow changes on the water resources of the Nile River basin were analyzed by quantifying the annual hydropower production and irrigation water release at HAD. The long-term HAD release for irrigation increases early in the century to 106 (109)% of historical, and then decreases to 87 (89) and 86 (84)% of historical in Periods II and III, respectively, for the A2 (B1) global emissions scenarios. Egypt’s hydropower production from HAD will be above the mean annual average historical value of about 10,000 GWH for the early part of 21st century, and thereafter will generally follow the streamflow trend, however with large variability among GCMs. Agricultural water supplies will be negatively impacted, especially in the second half of the century.  相似文献   

Hydrocarbons generated by hydropyrolysis of suspended marine particulate organic matter: Relationship to the oceanography of the Black Sea and the Rhodes Gyre     

Yeşim Çoban-Yildiz  Alec F. Gaines  Pat E. Keating  Gordon D. Love  Dennis McLoughlin  Colin E. Snape 《Organic Geochemistry》2009,40(2):270-282

The suspended particulate organic matter, SPOM, in the autumnal Black Sea has been characterised using catalytic hydropyrolysis (HyPy) of the total (bound plus free) lipid material. The technique, which generates maximum yields of volatile products from sediments, kerogens and phytoplankton, was followed using gas chromatography and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. The generated alkanes were dominated by n-C₁₈, hypothesised to arise predominantly from unsaturated C₁₈ fatty acids. Steranes were generated from reductive conversion of free and bound sterols. The generation of branched alkanes and especially of hopanes provided formal evidence for the participation of bacteria in the mineralisation of the SPOM. Whereas similar distributions of n-alkanes were generated from SPOM sampled from different depths of the comparatively well-stirred Rhodes Gyre (eastern Mediterranean), mineralisation of the SPOM at each depth of the central Black Sea produced characteristic changes in the composition and concentration of the HyPy products. Depth profiles of the n-alkanes generated from SPOM in the region of the Rim Current were affected by the local hydrography. Polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) of anthropogenic origin were present in the surface waters of the central Black Sea. Some methyl benzenes, thiophenes and pyrroles were also generated.  相似文献   

Krieger’s conceptualization and measurement of discrimination and internalized oppression in studies of adverse health outcomes   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Eugenia Conde  Dennis M. Gorman 《GeoJournal》2009,74(2):131-142

Embodiment is a central concept in Krieger’s ecosocial theory, and is said to be of relevance to the understanding of the relationship between social conditions and a variety of adverse health outcomes. The most detailed empirical investigation of this in Krieger’s work is to be found in her studies of the relationship between racial discrimination and high blood pressure. Of especial relevance here is the idea of internalized oppression which is said to explain the observed association between self-reports of no racial discrimination and increased levels of blood pressure among working-class African Americans. Here we critically examine the empirical evidence pertaining to internalized oppression. Specifically, we focus on the measurement of the construct and the quality of the empirical evidence that has been presented in support of the hypothesis that there is an association between internalized oppression and adverse health outcomes. We argue that the validity of the concept has yet to be established and that the available data linking it to poor health outcomes are open to alternative explanations, notably measurement error and misclassification.

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Eugenia CondeEmail:

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Rheologies and ages of lava flows on Elysium Mons,Mars     

Jan Hendrik Pasckert  Harald Hiesinger  Dennis Reiss 《Icarus》2012,219(1):443-457

We present results of our study of the rheologies and ages of lava flows in the Elysium Mons region of Mars. Previous studies have shown that the geometric dimensions of lava flows reflect rheological properties such as yield strength, effusion rate and viscosity. In this study the rheological properties of lava flows in the Elysium Mons region were determined and compared to the rheologies of the Ascraeus Mons lava flows. We also derived new crater size-frequency distribution measurements (CSFDs) for the Elysium lava flows to identify possible changes in the rheological properties with time. In addition, possible changes in the rheological properties with the distance from the caldera of Elysium Mons were analyzed.In total, 35 lava flows on and around Elysium Mons were mapped, and divided into three groups, lava flows on the flanks of Elysium Mons, in the plains between the three volcanoes Elysium Mons, Hecates and Albor Tholus and lava flows south of Albor Tholus. The rheological properties of 32 of these flows could be determined. Based on our morphometric measurements of each individual lava flow, estimates for the yield strengths, effusion rates, viscosities, and eruption duration of the studied lava flows were made. The yield strengths of the investigated lava flows range from ～3.8 × 10² Pa to ～1.5 × 10⁴ Pa, with an average of ～3.0 × 10³ Pa. These yield strengths are in good agreement with estimates for terrestrial basaltic lava flows. The effusion rates are on average ～747 m³ s^?1, ranging from ～99 to 4450 m³ s^?1. The viscosities are on average ～4.1 × 10⁶ Pa s, with a range of 1.2 × 10⁵ Pa s to 3.1 × 10⁷ Pa s. The eruption durations of the flows were calculated to be between 6 and 183 days, with an average of ～51 days. The determined rheological properties are generally very similar to those of other volcanic regions on Mars, such as on Ascraeus Mons in the Tharsis region. Calculated yield strengths and viscosities point to a basaltic/andesitic composition of the lava flows, similar to basaltic or andesitic a’a lava flows on Earth.Absolute model ages of all 35 lava flows on Elysium Mons were derived from crater size-frequency distribution measurements (CSFD). The derived model ages show a wide variation from about 632 Ma to 3460 Ma. Crater size-frequency distribution measurements of the Elysium Mons caldera show an age of ～1640 Ma, which is consistent with the resurfacing age of Werner (2009). Significant changes of the rheologies with time could not be observed. Similarly, we did not observe systematic changes in ages with increasing distances of lava flows from the Elysium Mons caldera.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Density Corrections to Methane Fluxes Measured by Open-Path Eddy Covariance over Contrasting Landscapes     

Samuel D. Chamberlain  Joseph Verfaillie  Elke Eichelmann  Kyle S. Hemes  Dennis D. Baldocchi 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,165(2):197-210

Corrections accounting for air density fluctuations due to heat and water vapour fluxes must be applied to the measurement of eddy-covariance fluxes when using open-path sensors. Experimental tests and ecosystem observations have demonstrated the important role density corrections play in accurately quantifying carbon dioxide \((\hbox {CO}_{2})\) fluxes, but less attention has been paid to evaluating these corrections for methane \((\hbox {CH}_{4})\) fluxes. We measured \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) fluxes with open-path sensors over a suite of sites with contrasting \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) emissions and energy partitioning, including a pavement airfield, two negligible-flux ecosystems (drained alfalfa and pasture), and two high-flux ecosystems (flooded wetland and rice). We found that density corrections successfully re-zeroed fluxes in negligible-flux sites; however, slight overcorrection was observed above pavement. The primary impact of density corrections varied over negligible- and high-flux ecosystems. For negligible-flux sites, corrections led to greater than 100% adjustment in daily budgets, while these adjustments were only 3–10% in high-flux ecosystems. The primary impact to high-flux ecosystems was a change in flux diel patterns, which may affect the evaluation of relationships between biophysical drivers and fluxes if correction bias exists. Additionally, accounting for density effects to high-frequency \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) fluctuations led to large differences in observed \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) flux cospectra above negligible-flux sites, demonstrating that similar adjustments should be made before interpreting \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) cospectra for comparable ecosystems. These results give us confidence in \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) fluxes measured by open-path sensors, and demonstrate that density corrections play an important role in adjusting flux budgets and diel patterns across a range of ecosystems.  相似文献   

无锡城市制造业企业区位调整与苏南模式重组   总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1  

袁丰  魏也华  陈雯  郭垚 《地理科学》2012,(4):401-408

苏南地域广阔,区域和城市发展路径多样。较多研究关注全球化背景下国家和省级开发区发展带来的苏南模式创新,但是城市化对苏南模式重组影响同样值得关注。基于企业数据的空间分析以及企业访谈和问卷调查资料,从制造业企业进入和退出的角度,考察无锡市南长区在从乡镇企业典型发育地区(郊区)转变为城区过程中的产业升级和空间格局调整过程。研究表明:南长区制造业经历了产权重组、结构重组和空间重组三个过程,呈现出中小高新技术企业为主、空间上高度集中等城市化特征。政府表现出明显的"企业化"倾向,与传统苏南模式中直接介入企业经营不同,地方政府通过规划调控以及开发区建设、税收等金融刺激政策和措施影响企业区位行为,从而推动城市产业结构的转型升级和空间再集聚。  相似文献   

Geophysical constraints on deep weathering and water storage potential in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

W. Steven Holbrook  Clifford S. Riebe  Mehrez Elwaseif  Jorden L. Hayes  Kyle Basler‐Reeder  Dennis L. Harry  Armen Malazian  Anthony Dosseto  Peter C. Hartsough  Jan W. Hopmans 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(3):366-380

The conversion of bedrock to regolith marks the inception of critical zone processes, but the factors that regulate it remain poorly understood. Although the thickness and degree of weathering of regolith are widely thought to be important regulators of the development of regolith and its water‐storage potential, the functional relationships between regolith properties and the processes that generate it remain poorly documented. This is due in part to the fact that regolith is difficult to characterize by direct observations over the broad scales needed for process‐based understanding of the critical zone. Here we use seismic refraction and resistivity imaging techniques to estimate variations in regolith thickness and porosity across a forested slope and swampy meadow in the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO). Inferred seismic velocities and electrical resistivities image a weathering zone ranging in thickness from 10 to 35 m (average = 23 m) along one intensively studied transect. The inferred weathering zone consists of roughly equal thicknesses of saprolite (P‐velocity < 2 km s^?1) and moderately weathered bedrock (P‐velocity = 2–4 km s^?1). A minimum‐porosity model assuming dry pore space shows porosities as high as 50% near the surface, decreasing to near zero at the base of weathered rock. Physical properties of saprolite samples from hand augering and push cores are consistent with our rock physics model when variations in pore saturation are taken into account. Our results indicate that saprolite is a crucial reservoir of water, potentially storing an average of 3 m³ m^?2 of water along a forested slope in the headwaters of the SSCZO. When coupled with published erosion rates from cosmogenic nuclides, our geophysical estimates of weathering zone thickness imply regolith residence times on the order of 10⁵ years. Thus, soils at the surface today may integrate weathering over glacial–interglacial fluctuations in climate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Economic development,urban expansion,and sustainable development in Shanghai   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Wenze Yue  Peilei Fan  Yehua Dennis Wei  Jiaguo Qi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(4):783-799

Studies of urbanization effects in Chinese cities from the aspect of the coupled development of economy and environment are rare due to data limitations. This paper studied Shanghai’s fast urban expansion and examined the dynamic relationship between economic growth and environment consequences at the district level. We extracted data on urban built-up area and land surface temperature from remote sensing images. We analyzed the patterns of urban expansion and land use change and explained the dynamic relationship between economic development and environment conditions. We attributed the uneven economic development and environmental change in districts of Shanghai to four main institutional factors: (1) the role of the government, (2) the multi-level urban planning system, (3) land market reform, and (4) the economic restructuring.  相似文献   

Spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon intensity from energy consumption in China   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

Yeqing Cheng  Zheye Wang  Xinyue Ye  Yehua Dennis Wei 《地理学报(英文版)》2014,24(4):631-650

The sustainable development has been seriously challenged by global climate change due to carbon emissions. As a developing country, China promised to reduce 40%-45% below the level of the year 2005 on its carbon intensity by 2020. The realization of this target depends on not only the substantive transition of society and economy at the national scale, but also the action and share of energy saving and emissions reduction at the provincial scale. Based on the method provided by the IPCC, this paper examines the spatiotemporal dynamics and dominating factors of China’s carbon intensity from energy consumption in 1997–2010. The aim is to provide scientific basis for policy making on energy conservation and carbon emission reduction in China. The results are shown as follows. Firstly, China’s carbon emissions increased from 4.16 Gt to 11.29 Gt from 1997 to 2010, with an annual growth rate of 7.15%, which was much lower than that of GDP (11.72%). Secondly, the trend of Moran’s I indicated that China’s carbon intensity has a growing spatial agglomeration at the provincial scale. The provinces with either high or low values appeared to be path-dependent or space-locked to some extent. Third, according to spatial panel econometric model, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure and urbanization rate were the dominating factors shaping the spatiotemporal patterns of China’s carbon intensity from energy consumption. Therefore, in order to realize the targets of energy conservation and emission reduction, China should improve the efficiency of energy utilization, optimize energy and industrial structure, choose the low-carbon urbanization approach and implement regional cooperation strategy of energy conservation and emissions reduction.  相似文献   

Dust ejection from planetary bodies by temperature gradients: Laboratory experiments     

Thorben Kelling  Gerhard Wurm  Miroslav Kocifaj  Jozef Klačka  Dennis Reiss 《Icarus》2011,212(2):935-940

Laboratory experiments show that dusty bodies in a gaseous environment eject dust particles if they are illuminated. We find that even more intense dust eruptions occur when the light source is turned off. We attribute this to a compression of gas by thermal creep in response to the changing temperature gradients in the top dust layers. The effect is studied at a light flux of 13 kW/m² and 1 mbar ambient pressure. The effect is applicable to protoplanetary disks and Mars. In the inner part of protoplanetary disks, planetesimals can be eroded especially at the terminator of a rotating body. This leads to the production of dust which can then be transported towards the disk edge or the outer disk regions. The generated dust might constitute a significant fraction of the warm dust observed in extrasolar protoplanetary disks. We estimate erosion rates of about 1 kg s^?1 for 100 m parent bodies. The dust might also contribute to subsequent planetary growth in different locations or on existing protoplanets which are large enough not to be susceptible to particle loss by light induced ejection. Due to the ejections, planetesimals and smaller bodies will be accelerated or decelerated and drift outward or inward, respectively. The effect might also explain the entrainment of dust in dust devils on Mars, especially at high altitudes where gas drag alone might not be sufficient.  相似文献